The birth rate in the United States has reached historic lows, with the country's rate below replacement fertility since 2007, according to available data.
Researchers at the National Bureau of Economic Research have conducted a study to identify the reason behind the decline, and their surprising findings point to the iPhone as a contributing factor.
The study used the period when AT&T was the sole carrier for the iPhone, from 2007 to 2011, to isolate an iPhone-specific channel and compare birth rates in areas with a high AT&T customer base to areas where competitors like Verizon were stronger.
The results show a clear correlation between iPhone users and the decline in birth rates, particularly in the 15- to 19- and 20- to 24-year-old age groups. Birth rates fell in the 15- to 19-year-old age group to 8 percent, and to 6.6 percent in the 20- to 24-year-old age group, representing 4.5 and 3.2 percent decreases, respectively, compared to control groups.
The study suggests that the diffusion of the iPhone explains 33-52 percent of the decline in the general fertility rate among women aged 15-44.
Researchers note that AT&T's customer base during the studied period was primarily urban, well-educated, and on average, white, and also that the birth rate in the youngest age groups had already been declining before 2007, stabilized for a few years around that time, and then continued to fall.
Some experts argue that the rise of the iPhone, or smartphones in general, is more of a symptom than a cause of increasing urbanization in the U.S. and worldwide, suggesting that the relationship between the iPhone and birth rates is more complex than initially thought.
While the study does not claim that the iPhone is the sole cause of the post-2007 decline, it implies that the introduction of the modern smartphone played a sizable role in the decline in U.S. births during the 2008–2011 window.
